Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Republican Pathways to the Nomination

With Iowa coming up next week it is getting near time to be realistic with the process.  Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are blowing away the entire field in Iowa with both candidates polling far ahead of the other 10 contenders for the nomination.  Iowa has a complex process where precints hold separate votes for delegates to the national convention.  It is very possible for several candidates to garner sufficient votes to acquire pledged delegates from Iowa.

On February 9 is the New Hampshire primary.  Currently Mr. Trump holds a 20% lead over all other candidates in polling being conducted by national sources.  To qualify for any delegates a candidate must win 10% of the votes.  Under most recent polling averages Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich are the only candidates on the GOP side polling above this standard.

It can be assumed that after New Hampshire most of the current field will have dropped out with zero delegates.

Things will move to South Carolina   Scheduled for February 20.  South Carolina carries 50 delegates and allocates 29 by statewide vote totals...and 21 by congressional district totals from 7 districts.  Most recent polling averages show Donald Trump well ahead of Ted Cruz..with Marco Rubio trailing in 3rd by a significant margin as well. 

If any candidate wins all 3 of these states I assume that candidate will roll to the nomination barring something catastrophic.  Further, no candidate who fails to win any of these three will have any shot at the nomination.  Even though there are 12 right 3 weeks there will be 2 or 1.

No comments:

Post a Comment